Signs of Recovery Emerge in Canada Housing Market But Regional Gaps Persist
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Canada’s housing market is beginning to show early signs of recovery, according to RBC economist Robert Hogue. In May, a modest rebound in sales was observed across several major cities—including Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, Fraser Valley, Saskatoon, and Regina—following earlier declines attributed to economic uncertainty and trade tensions. The easing of tariffs has alleviated the most severe worries, though risks remain, particularly due to escalating steel and aluminum duties.
That said, the rebound is uneven. Housing markets in southern Ontario and parts of British Columbia—already among Canada’s least affordable areas—remain notably weak. These regions saw prices dip in May, with the MLS Home Price Index falling in the Toronto region, Hamilton, Kitchener–Waterloo, Cambridge, Vancouver, and the Fraser Valley. Conversely, markets in the Prairies (Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina) and some in Quebec and Atlantic Canada have demonstrated more resilience, showing relative stability despite trade-related headwinds.
Looking at individual city highlights, Toronto posted an 8.4% seasonally adjusted rise in home resales from April to May, suggesting shifting sentiment—but inventory remains historically high, exerting downward price pressure with residential prices still 4.5% below last year’s levels. Montreal showed steadier activity with only a slight sales dip and saw year-over-year price gains of 8.6% for single-family homes and 4.3% for condos. Vancouver continues to struggle—marking six consecutive months of resale declines, rising inventory, and a nearly 3% drop in prices year-over-year in May. Meanwhile, Calgary bucked the trend with an over 8% monthly increase in sales, driven by strong population and job growth, though its prices remain slightly down year-over-year.
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